Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 12/27/11

U.S. pork exports will tail off in 2012 as Asian pork production increases and consumer food price inflation abates, USDA said in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Total U.S. pork exports in 2012 are expected to mirror 2011 levels at 5.1 billion pounds, a level to be achieved with plenty of help of fourth-quarter performance. U.S. exporters are expected to ship 1.4 billion pounds of pork products overseas, an increase of more than 22 percent over the fourth quarter in 2010, with particular demand in Asia.

Pork products available to the domestic market are likely to grow year-over-year next year for the first time since 2009. High domestic availability, then, will push down hog prices by about 1.6 percent.

Further declines in hog prices are likely to be checked by lower 2012 production in poultry (down 1.8 percent, year-over-year) and beef (down 4.6 percent, year-over-year). Substitution effects from higher retail prices for poultry and beef prices should keep 2012 retail pork prices in the high $3.40s per pound, USDA said.

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