Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 12/27/11

Sharp declines in broiler placements and slower growth in bird weights have prompted USDA to lower its fourth-quarter 2011 broiler-meat production estimates by 25 million pounds to 9 billion pounds, and to lower estimates for the first and second quarters of 2012, the agency said in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Revised forecasts for the first and second quarters of 2012 are down 5.3 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively, year over year, and the estimate for total 2012 broiler meat production has been revised to down 2.1 percent from 2011.

But USDA doesn’t see integrators stopping there. Given relatively high corn prices expected through the remainder of 2011 and into 2012, as well as relatively weak prices for most breast meat, broiler integrators likely will scale back production through much of 2012, the agency said.

From Nov. 5 to Dec. 3, chick placements have averaged 154 million, down 6.6 percent from the same period in 2010. USDA expects chick placements to remain below year-ago levels through the first half of 2012.

Some 640 million pounds of broiler products were in cold storage at the end of third-quarter 2011, down 6 percent from the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to remain below year-earlier levels through the third quarter of 2012, USDA said.

Expected lower broiler production through the first half of 2012 are expected to boost prices. Whole bird prices are expected to be about 78 cents per pound in fourth-quarter 2011, down 3 percent from the previous year. But prices in 2012 are expected to increase and exceed year-earlier levels throughout the year.

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