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U.S. corn crop off to a strong start, raising yield expectations
Story Date: 5/31/2012
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Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 5/30/12
USDA reported 72 percent of the U.S. corn crop in major producing states was rated in good or excellent condition in the week ended May 27, down from 77 percent a week ago but above last year’s 64 percent at this point.
In its weekly Crop Progress report USDA also reported 92 percent of the corn crop had emerged, compared to just 59 percent by this time last year and the 5-year average of 69 percent emerged by this time.
Both this year’s early planting and the high percentage of the crop rated good or excellent are indicators of promising yield prospects, wrote University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good in his Weekly Outlook report.
He noted that only 4 percent of this year’s crop was planted after May 20 — the smallest percentage since 1986. Agronomists generally see corn planted after May 20 as more vulnerable to lower yields. Good also compared 77 percent of the crop rating good or excellent on May 20 to the average since 1986 of just 66 percent rated that highly that early in the season.
Lower corn futures prices reflect expectations of a large corn crop this fall. Sanderson Farms Chairman and CEO Joe Sanderson Jr. said yesterday that if the poultry company had prices all its corn feed needs by now its full-year feed costs would be down $24.2 million from a year ago.
However …
Despite all the optimism, Good was quick to warn that a large corn crop is far from a certainty.
“A small percentage of the crop planted late this year and the early condition of the crop point to the potential for an above-trend yield in 2012, but the most important part of the season is just beginning…. At this juncture two important developments may be required in order to maintain high yield expectations. The first is some convincing evidence that the relatively long period (8 months or so) of above-average temperatures is giving way to normal or below normal temperatures. The second is for soil moisture deficits in important areas of the central, eastern, and southern Corn Belt to be eliminated.”
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