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USDA sees lower beef, higher pork and poultry output
Story Date: 6/13/2012
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Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 6/12/12
USDA lowered its forecast for 2012 U.S. beef production to 25.088 billion pounds from 25.190 billion a month ago as lower steer and heifer slaughter more than offset higher dressed weights and higher cow slaughter.
Cattle price forecasts remained unchanged at $123 to $128 per hundredweight.
Poultry
In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA raised its 2012 broiler output forecast to 36.89 billion pounds from 36.589 billion last month, noting that while remaining below last year, hatchery data are pointing towards smaller declines in eggs set and heavier bird weights. Turkey production is also forecast slightly higher, based on recent production data.
Broiler prices are now forecast at 85 cents to 88 cents per pound, down from 86 cents to 89 cents per pound last month. Turkey price projections remained unchanged at $1.07 to $1.11 per pound.
Pork
Pork production for 2012 is now forecast at 23.368 billion pounds from 23.283 a month ago on heavier expected carcass weights. Hog prices are now forecast to average $59 to $61 per hundredweight, down from a range of $61 to $63 last month.
Corn
USDA left unchanged its corn price projections at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel for the year ending this September and $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel for the year that begins in September.
Deutsche Bank analyst Christina McGlone called the report bearish for corn prices, noting 2011/12 corn crop ending stocks are forecast at 851 million bushels, which was above analysts’ expectations of about 822 million bushels, indicating more corn available than expected.
Soybeans
Conversely, McGlone called the report bullish for soybean prices, as endings stocks were forecast at 175 million bushels, which was below analysts’ consensus forecast of 192 million bushes.
Soybean and soybean meal price projections for 2012/13 remained unchanged at $12 to $14 per bushel and $335 to $365 per short ton, respectively.
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