|
USDA slashes corn crop, feed use; sees more cattle off pastures
Story Date: 7/12/2012
| |
Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 7/11/12
USDA cut its U.S. corn crop estimate by a massive 1.8 billion bushels, to 12.97 billion, and slashed its livestock feed use forecast by 650 million bushels as the persistent hot, dry weather in the Midwest shows no sign of abating.
Analysts had wondered if USDA would ease down its estimates or take the plunge in today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Clearly the agency determined that feared crop losses are imminent, dropping its corn yield estimate by 20 bushels per acre to 146, citing “the rapid decline in crop conditions since early June and the latest weather data.”
USDA reduced its corn use for ethanol projection by 100 million bushels to 4.9 billion.
Ending corn stocks for 2012/13 are now projected at 1.2 billion bushels, down 698 million from last month’s projection.
The season average 2012/13 farm price for corn is projected at $5.40 to $6.40 per bushel, up sharply from $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel in June.
Soybeans
Less dramatic than corn, but still headed down, soybean production is projected at 3.050 billion bushels, down 155 million as increased harvested area is more than offset by reduced yields.
The U.S. season average soybean price is now projected at $13 to $15 per bushel, up $1 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $365 to $395 per short ton, up $30 on both ends of the range.
Beef, pork and poultry
The forecasts for 2012 and 2013 red meat and poultry production are reduced from last month as higher feed prices are expected to slow the pace of pork and poultry expansion and temper growth in weights.
Beef production is forecast higher for 2012 as deteriorating pasture conditions are expected to increase placements in feedlots. Beef production is reduced slightly for 2013 as the earlier placement of calves in 2012 results in a small adjustment to early 2013 marketings.
Cattle carcass weights are raised for the first part of 2012, but placement of lighter-weight cattle in feedlots and the higher forecast cost of feed are expected to dampen weight growth in 2012 and 2013.
Beef imports are raised for 2012 as demand for processing beef remains strong and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar has helped support imports from Oceania. Beef exports are reduced from last month as exports have slowed.
Strong pork exports in April support an increase in the 2012 forecast. Pork imports are unchanged. Broiler and turkey exports for 2012 are raised based on current export demand.
Beef, pork, and turkey trade forecasts for 2013 are unchanged from last month but the forecast of broiler exports is raised on expectations of continued strong demand.
Cattle, broiler and turkey price forecasts 2012 are lowered from last month, but hog prices are raised. For 2013, the cattle price is unchanged, but hog, broiler and turkey prices are raised from last month on tighter supplies.
For the full report, click here.
For more stories, go to http://www.meatingplace.com/.
|
|
|
|
