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Two years of drought show in cattle numbers
Story Date: 7/23/2012
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Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 7/23/12
With parts of the country racking up their second year of severe drought — including many areas that are heavy cattle grazing ranges — the water shortages are having a significant effect on overall cattle numbers.
The semi-annual cattle and calves inventory turned in the lowest mid-summer numbers since the series began in 1973, according to USDA.
All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2012, totaled 97.8 million head, 2 percent below their levels of a year ago, according to the USDA report released Friday afternoon. That figure also is at the bottom of the range of analysts’ estimates for the report.
The subset of cows and heifers that have calved was a big drag on the overall number: That category, at 39.7 million, was down 2 percent from its year-ago level.
On a related note, calves under 500 pounds, numbering 26.5 million, were down 3 percent.
Cattle on feed
Meanwhile, cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in the United States, in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head, totaled 10.7 million head on July 1, a 3 percent jump over year-ago levels. That put the numbers at the upper end of the range of analysts’ expectations for the report.
The cattle on feed for slaughter inventory included 6.74 million steers and steer calves, up 4 percent from the previous year.
Meanwhile, placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.66 million, 2 percent below 2011. That report came in at the middle of analysts’ projections, which ranged widely last week, mostly because of “differing views of the impact of dry pasture conditions and higher feed costs,” as analysts Steven Meyer and Len Steiner noted in the Daily Livestock Report.
All cattle on feed as of July 1 totaled 12.3 million, up 1 percent from the 12.2 million on July 1, 2011, the USDA reported Friday afternoon.
Moving target
The severity of the drought, however, is forcing industry factors to change more quickly than the government can prepare its reports — increasing the likelihood that even these latest reports already have been rendered inaccurate, Meyer and Steiner caution.
They note that the percentage of total pasture acres rated as being in poor or very poor condition increased 4 percent in just one week, coming in at 54 percent as of the middle of last week. As well, 71 percent of the nation’s beef cows are located in states of poor or very poor pasture conditions as of last week.
“The magnitude of the Poor/Very Poor percentages is still large and the speed with which it has grown is rather shocking,” they wrote.
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