|
USDA sees less pork, poultry, corn, soybeans; more beef
Story Date: 9/13/2012
| |
Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/12/12
USDA lowered its forecasts of pork, poultry, corn and soybean production, but raised its forecast for beef production in its September Crop Report and World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates reports.
Corn
USDA’s decreased its corn production forecasts slightly to 10.727 billion bushels from 10.779 billion bushels a month ago, but this was well above the average of analysts’ forecasts, which came in at 10.38 billion bushels.
With harvest in progress, USDA reported lower yields and production in the Corn Belt and Central Plains are partly offset by increases elsewhere, particularly across the South where an early harvest is boosting available supplies.
U.S. corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected 108 million bushels higher, however, as an increase in expected beginning stocks more than offsets lower production this month. The agency lowered its average corn price forecast to a range of $7.20 to $8.60 from last month’s projected range of $7.50 to $8.90.
Soybeans
USDA decreased its soybean forecast by 2 percent to 2.63 billion bushels at a time when supplies are already short. The agency left its price forecast unchanged at $15 to $17 per bushel.
Soybean meal prices, however, were raised to an average of $485 to $515 per short ton, compared to a range of $460 to $490 projected a month ago.
Beef
Beef production is raised in 2012 as higher fed beef and cow slaughter is forecast. The 2013 forecast is raised, as higher forecast placements in second-half 2012 will result in larger fed cattle supplies in the first part of 2013.
Beef imports are reduced for 2012 based on the current pace of imports, but are unchanged for 2013. Beef exports are unchanged for 2012, but the forecast for 2013 is lowered as supplies will remain relatively tight and tighter poultry supplies are expected to support domestic demand.
Cattle prices for 2012 are raised from last month on stronger second-half demand, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged despite higher forecast production, as demand remains relatively strong.
Pork
The pork production forecast for 2012 is reduced due to a slightly slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and slightly lower carcass weights in the second half of the year. Pork production is reduced for 2013 as carcass weights are tempered.
Pork exports are reduced for both years on weaker expected demand from Asia.
Pork prices for 2012 are forecast lower, largely reflecting current prices, but prices for 2013 are unchanged from last month.
Poultry
Broiler production is reduced in both 2012 and 2013 as producer returns are expected to be pressured by higher soybean meal prices.
Turkey production is raised fractionally for 2012, but the forecast for 2013 is reduced as soybean meal prices are forecast higher.
Poultry export forecasts are unchanged for both 2012 and 2013.
Broiler price forecasts are raised for both years, as supplies are lower. Turkey prices are forecast lower for 2012, reflecting current prices; forecasts for 2013 are unchanged.
To read the full WASDE report, click here.
For more stories, go to http://www.meatingplace.com/.
|
|
|
|
