Tobacco Talk is a periodic electronic newsletter of updates and short reports designed to augment the printed quarterlyTobacco Growernewsletter. If you have information you would like to include in the “Tobacco Talk” report please send it to Graham Boyd at the following email:grahamboyd@nc.rr.com.
MARKETS:
Performing well: Growers report that the grading of the crop is going well and that tobacco deliveries indicate a continued strong demand for the crop. Conversations with multiple receiving station buyers is consistent that the crop condition is good to very good quality overall.
Volumes: It appears that peak delivery volumes for the season may have already occurred. Nearly every grower east of I-95 reports either being complete with field harvesting or will be by the end of this week.
Areas in the old belt have begun stripping the crop. Growers in locations such asGranvilleCountyindicate having only another week to ten days until harvest completion.
CROP FORECAST:
Hold ability: In general the change to cooler temperatures seems to be helping the later crop hold in the field. There is also the indication of greater than usual late season sucker pressure. This was anticipated however because of the excessive rain in many locations coupled with other variables of weather and disease related stress.
Already thinking about 2013: As this crop begins to wynd down the attention will soon shift to expectations for next year. One factor in play at this moment is the simple competition for acres. Grain prices remain very attractive for 2013. The drought that has crippled the mid-west will take longer than six months to mitigate in terms of crop inventories and its global impacts.
Specific to tobacco is the amount of wheat acres that NC farmers are considering. Many growers hold a “bullish” attitude about the wheat marketing for 2013. Forward booking prices for July 2013 are very attractive. As field preparations begin this month for planting wheat the circumstance that develops is that every acre committed to wheat and planted this November is acres that cannot plant any early spring crops.
It is realistic to expect that corn and soybean acres will maintain or even increase for next year. Know the likely position of each crop would suggest that cotton and tobacco are two commodities that may “give” acres to staple grain crops.
Factors that will influence tobacco acres include (1) how this market finishes, (2) profitability of 2012, (3) available acres and land rotation needs, (4) anticipated or confirmed price targets of tobacco for 2013 and (5) the value of used tobacco specific equipment.
ANNOUNCEMENTS:
Harvest Golf Tournament: The annual TGANC Harvest Golf Tournament will be held on November 1stat the Lonnie Poole Golf Course on NC State Centennial Club. We will begin with a1pmshotgun start. His is a great day for golf and industry fellowship. Mark your calendar now and plan to join us. If you would like registration information please email Graham
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