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USDA lowers 2013 meat and poultry production forecasts
Story Date: 12/12/2012
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Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 12/11/12
USDA lowered its 2013 red meat and poultry production in its latest World Supply and Demand Estimates report as lower pork production more than offsets higher beef production.
Beef production is raised as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter is expected to be higher and forecast carcass weights are raised. Pork production forecasts are reduced from last month as first-quarter slaughter is expected to be slightly lower and carcass weights are reduced in the first half of the year.
Poultry production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged.
2012 estimates
For 2012, the total meat production estimate is raised as higher forecast fourth-quarter beef and broiler production more than offsets lower expected pork production.
Cattle slaughter has been higher than expected and carcass weights remain high. Hog slaughter and carcass weights in the fourth quarter are forecast lower than last month. The broiler production forecast is raised based on production data to date. Turkey production is unchanged.
Prices
Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting strong demand for cattle through the end of this year and into 2013. Steer prices (5-area direct, all grades) for 2013 are now forecast at $124 to $134 per hundredweight, up $1.
The hog price forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are raised as lower forecast production is expected to support prices. Hog prices (live equivalent 51-52 percent lean) in 2013 are now forecast at $63 to $67 per hundredweight, up $1.
Broiler prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013 as demand has been firm. The turkey price forecast for 2012 is raised slightly, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged from last month.
Broiler prices in 2013 are now forecast at 88 cents to 94 cents per pound, up from 85 cents to 92 cents per pound forecast last month.
To read the full report, click here.
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