|
USDA cattle report hints at herd rebuilding
Story Date: 2/5/2013
| |
Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/4/13
USDA on Friday reported all cattle and calves in the United States on Jan. 1, 2013 totaled 89.3 million head, 2 percent below a year ago and the lowest Jan. 1 inventory since 1952.
But that wasn’t the most interesting news. Analysts took more note of the number of beef replacement heifers, which were up 2 percent to 5.4 million head; analysts on average expected the number to actually decline by 0. 4 percent, according to a pre-report poll by Dow Jones.
“It is too early to draw hard and fast conclusions from one data point but this may be an early indication that the cattle herd has the potential to start rising in a couple of years,” wrote J.P.Morgan analyst Ken Goldman in a note to investors.
Livestock analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner cautioned, however, that time will tell. “As for cattle herd rebuilding, the latest survey showed that the incentives are there but weather will remain a critical driver,” they noted in the Daily Livestock Report.
Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel agreed. “Limited beef cow herd expansion is possible in 2013 but it will require almost perfect conditions with respect to cow culling and heifer placement. The ongoing drought conditions do not make that likely,” he wrote in the Cow/Calf Corner newsletter.
Meanwhile, other indicators point to fewer cattle in the next couple of years. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 38.5 million, were down 2 percent from a year ago; the lowest number since 1941.
The 2012 calf crop was estimated at 34.3 million head, down 3 percent from
2011 — the smallest calf crop since 1949. Calves born during the first half of 2012 are estimated at 25.0 million, down 3 percent from 2011.
Goldman called the report “potentially positive long-term for beef packers such as Tyson.” He went on to say, “It is interesting to see beef heifers as a percent of the total beef cow herd at a nearly 20-year high. If this trend continues it would help alleviate some of the lack of cattle supply that packers such as Tyson currently experience.”
Even as U.S. cattle inventories have declined, producers have offset production declines in part by bringing heavier cattle to market. “[T]he efficiency gains will need to continue since the steady decline in the cow inventory implies ever shrinking calf crops in 2013 and 2014,” the DLR analysts wrote.
For more stories, go to http://www.meatingplace.com/
|
|
|
|
