The fall and rise of U.S. poultry production: USDA’s 10-year forecast
Story Date: 2/15/2013

 
Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 2/14/13

Along with U.S. red meat production, that of poultry will continue to decline in 2013 due to a lingering economic recession, high feed prices and drought, but higher net returns and improved forage supplies will help a rebound in the next decade, USDA said in its Agricultural Projections to 2022 report.

Though poultry production will rise through 2022, it will do so at lower rates than in the 1980s and 1990s. USDA projects that both broiler and turkey meats will expand due to higher bird numbers and higher average weights at slaughter. Meanwhile, increased demand is expected to strengthen broiler prices, although poultry will face competition from increasing red meat production from 2015 forward.

Declines in overall meat production will result in higher consumer prices and lower per-capita consumption in the near-term. Annual average consumption of red meats and poultry will fall to 198 pounds this year — the first time that per-capita consumption will be below 200 pounds since 1990 — from an average of over 221 pounds per capita in 2004-07. As production increases over the remainder of the projection period, per-capita consumption of red meats and poultry increases but reaches only about 209 pounds by 2022, USDA predicts.

Per-capita poultry consumption is projected to rise through the end of 2022 and, in contrast to red meats, to exceed levels of the past decade, the agency says.

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