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Source: USDA ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE, 4/16/13
Beef/Cattle: Improved prospects for grazing in 2013 because of recent rains have bolstered
feeder cattle prices. Lower year-over-year supplies of beef have provided support for cow
prices, but this has been less so for fed cattle and wholesale beef prices.
Beef/Cattle Trade: With strong global demand, U.S. beef exports are expected to decline
only about 1 percent in 2013. U.S. beef imports are expected to strengthen as the
year progresses.
Pork/Hogs: The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed larger March 1 inventories
compared with a year ago. Commercial pork production in 2013 is expected to increase
about 1 percent. February exports were off sharply, with lower shipments to all major
markets except Canada.
Poultry: The forecast for first-quarter 2013 broiler meat production was lowered slightly to
9.16 billion pounds, just under 1 percent higher than in first-quarter 2012. At the end of
February, cold storage holdings were 615 million pounds, up 8.3 percent from the previous
year. U.S. turkey meat production is estimated at 1.46 billion pounds in first quarter 2013,
10 million pounds above the previous estimate and almost 1 percent higher than the
previous year. Stocks of whole birds, at 172 million pounds, made up 43 percent of total
turkey stocks.
Poultry Trade: Broiler and turkey shipments in February 2013 fell from a year ago, while
egg shipments increased over the same period. Broiler shipments dropped almost 8 percent from
a year earlier, totaling 588.4 million pounds. Turkey exports totaled 60.7 million pounds in
February 2013, a decrease of 2.3 percent from a year earlier. Egg and egg product exports
totaled 21.5 million dozen in February 2013, an increase of almost 9 percent from last February.
Sheep/Lamb: Lamb prices declined throughout the first quarter of 2013 and are expected to weaken further during the ensuing quarters as demand for feeder and slaughter lamb declines. Prices are not expected to show much improvement during 2013 as demand and supply appear to be well balanced. Supply is tight enough to push prices up, and demand appears weak enough to pull prices down. As a result, Choice slaughter lamb prices at San Angelo, Texas, are expected to hover near $100 per cwt for most of 2013.
Dairy: Higher milk per cow in 2013 boosts milk output despite a year-over-year herd reduction. Stronger export prospects and a continued modest climb in domestic demand compared with last year help firm prices across the board for both milk and dairy products. However, compared with last month’s forecast, export forecasts are unchanged, and domestic demand was lowered. Prices are increased from last month due to lowered milk production forecasts this month.
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