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USDA lowers meat, poultry production forecasts
Story Date: 7/12/2013
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Source Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 7/11/13
USDA lowered its forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month on lower beef, pork and turkey production.
Beef production is lowered as steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter was lower than expected. The lower second- quarter slaughter more than offsets higher forecast slaughter in the second half of the year.
The pork production forecast is reduced, largely on a reduction in fourth-quarter slaughter. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that despite a record number of pigs per litter in March- May, the pig crop for that period was only fractionally above year-earlier.
Turkey production is lowered as hatchery data points toward sharper declines in second-half production. The broiler production forecast is unchanged.
2014
For 2014, the red meat and poultry production forecast is higher based on expected larger pork production. Pork production increases are driven primarily by gains in pigs per liter as producers have indicated intentions to only gradually expand farrowings in the second half of 2013.
Imports/Exports
Beef and pork exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged. The beef import forecast is lowered for 2013 and 2014 due largely to expected tight supplies in Oceania. Pork imports are raised slightly for 2013 and 2014. Broiler and turkey exports for 2013 are raised on the current strength of trade. Forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.
Prices
The cattle price forecast for 2013 is lowered from last month as prices have weakened recently. The 2014 price forecast is lowered for the first half of the year.
Hog prices are raised as demand strength carries from 2013 into 2014, but price gains will be limited by higher production.
Broiler prices are higher as strong demand is expected to support prices in 2014. Turkey prices are down slightly for 2013 while 2014 is unchanged.
Corn
USDA lowered its beginning stocks of corn for 2013/14 by 40 million bushels. Corn production for 2013/14 is lowered 55 million bushels due to lower expected harvested area.
Projected corn production remains just below 14 billion bushels and would be 858 million above the record in 2009/10. Corn supplies for 2013/14 are lowered 90 million bushels as a 5-million-bushel increase in imports only partly offsets the lower beginning stocks and production.
This month’s changes to corn use for 2012/13 and 2013/14 largely reflect the lateness of the 2013 crop and expectations for extremely tight supplies later this summer and into early fall.
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