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USDA raises beef forecast, lowers pork, poultry
Story Date: 8/13/2013
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Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 8/12/13
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2013 is raised from last month as higher beef production more than offsets lower pork, broiler and turkey production, USDA reported.
Production
In its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the agency said beef production is raised as greater fed cattle and cow slaughter combine with heavier average carcass weights to push output higher. Moderate feed prices and recent placement of heavy animals are expected to support higher average carcass weights in the second half of the year.
Pork production is reduced largely reflecting lower slaughter in the third quarter. Broiler production is reduced as the increase in second-quarter production was smaller than expected. The forecast for second-half production is unchanged. Turkey production is lowered as hatchery data portends sharper production declines in the third and fourth quarters.
For 2014, beef production is raised slightly on larger expected marketings of cattle placed in 2013. Forecasts for other meats are unchanged.
Exports
Beef exports are raised for 2013 on stronger shipments to several markets, while the forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month. Beef imports for 2013 are reduced based on second-quarter data but are unchanged for 2014.
The 2013 pork export forecast is down fractionally reflecting second-quarter data, with 2014 unchanged.
The 2013 broiler export forecast is higher as shipments showed continued strength in June. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged.
Turkey exports for 2013 are up slightly reflecting trade data for the second quarter.
Prices
Fed cattle prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as greater beef production and attractively priced competing meats are expected to pressure prices.
Hog prices are raised for 2013 as demand strength is expected to continue through the end of the year.
Broiler prices are reduced in 2013 and 2014 as recent price declines are expected to persist. Turkey price forecasts are unchanged from last month.
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