Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 9/13/13


USDA raised its 2013 forecast for red meat and poultry production based on increased cow and bull slaughter, heavier hogs and strong poultry production and hatchery data to date.

In its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, USDA reduced its 2014 total red meat and poultry forecast, with a boost in beef production, an expectation that pork production will remain unchanged and a projection that poultry production will decline as soybean meal prices soar.

Beef
The beef production forecast for 2013 rose as higher second-half production increases more than offset a reduced first-half forecast. Placements are lowered for the third and fourth quarters in 2013 but raised for first-quarter 2014 as more cattle are kept on pasture and winter wheat for placement early next year.

A small reduction in carcass weights partly offsets the increase in later-year marketings and relatively high early-year cow slaughter.

Beef imports are reduced for 2013 based on the current pace of imports with a reduced forecast carried through 2014. Global beef supplies are tight and demand from competing importers is expected to limit growth in U.S. imports. Beef exports are higher for 2013 based on the strength of shipments to date. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged.

Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Pork
Pork production is unchanged for 2014. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 27, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2014.

Pork exports are raised for both years as export demand to countries in Asia and North America continues to be strong.

Hog prices for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Poultry
For 2014, broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced as soybean meal prices are forecast higher and turkey returns remain under pressure through the early part of the year.

The 2013 broiler export forecast is reduced as recent exports lagged expectations, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are unchanged for 2013 but lowered for 2014.

The broiler price forecast for 2013 is lowered based on current price weakness. The forecast for 2014 is unchanged. The turkey price forecast is reduced for 2013 on relatively weak demand and slightly higher production, but 2014 is unchanged from last month with slower forecast production growth.

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.