Source: CENTER FOR IMMIGRATION STUDIES, 10/10/13


Based on projections published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), we estimate that if S.744 were to become law it will add more than 17 million new potential voting-age citizens by 2036. These new potential voters are in addition to the nearly 15 million that the current level of legal immigration will add by 2036. Combined, current immigration plus the effects of S.744 would add more than 32 million potential new voting-age citizens by 2036. To place these figures in perspective, the last four presidential elections were decided by 4.5 million votes on average.

Among the report’s findings:
•      Based on the CBO’s analysis of S.744, we project that the bill will add 4.6 million new potential voters above the number added by the current level of legal immigration by 2024. The bill would add 9.5 million potential voters by 2028 and 17.3 million by 2036.
•      Of the new potential voters S.744 would create by 2036, slightly more than one-third would be a result of the bill’s amnesty provisions based on CBO projections, the rest are due to the bill’s large increases in future legal immigration.
•      Even without the effects of S.744, the current level of immigration will add 5.1 million new potential voting-age citizens to the country by 2024, 8.4 million by 2028, and 14.9 million by 2036.
•      Combined, the current level of immigration plus the additions from S.744 would create nearly 10 million potential voting-age citizens by 2024, and more than 32 million by 2036.
•      The 32 million potential voters current immigration plus S.744 will create is slightly larger than the number of Americans over age 65 who voted in 2012. It is more than twice the number of veterans who voted in 2012, and nearly three times the number of Hispanics who voted last year.
•      For legal permanent immigrants to be potential voters they must be at least 18 years old and have lived in the country for at least five years, allowing them to naturalize. For most amnesty beneficiaries under S.744, it will take at least a decade for them to naturalize.
•      These projections are only for potential immigrant voters, not their U.S.-born children. The projections take into account deaths, return-migration, and residency requirements to naturalize. We do not estimate the share that will actually naturalize and vote once eligible to do so.

Discussion
While the impact of immigration generally or S.744 in particular is hotly debated, there is general agreement on the effect immigration has the size of U.S. population, including those eligible to vote. Lawful Permanent Residents (LPRs), colloquially referred to as green card holders, can, if they wish, become citizens by naturalizing, normally after five years of residence. The same is true of those legalized under the amnesty provisions of S.744. (Most amnesty beneficiaries will have to wait more than a decade to naturalize; however, those who arrived before age 16 or have worked in agriculture can do so much more quickly.) This report takes into account return-migration, mortality, and residency requirements to naturalize and then projects the impact of both current immigration and the added effect of S.744 on the number of potential voters created in the four presidential elections 2024 through 2036.
In recent years, the United States has issued 1.1 million new green cards annually. So even without S.744, current immigration will add 9.5 million potential voters by 2028 and 17.3 million potential voters by 2036 (See Figure 1). These are individuals who will have LPR status, have lived in the country for at least five years, and are old enough to vote by these dates. The figures also include those who entered in 2014 or later and will have already naturalized. To project the added impact of S.744 we use the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of S.744. Because S.744 would significantly accelerate family immigration for a decade and create new programs for skilled and unskilled workers it will create an additional 9.5 million potential voters by 2028 and 17.3 million by 2036.

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