Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 10/31/13


JP Morgan equity research analyst Ken Goldman revised his outlook for several companies in his portfolio, with the red meat-related firms largely seeing better days ahead, but poultry looking at a downturn.

Goldman retained his overall earnings estimate for fiscal years 2014 and 2015 for Hain Celestial Group, part-owner of Hain Pure Protein, but shifted some of the expected earnings to the back of the year. For Kraft, meanwhile, Goldman is shifting expected earnings back a quarter, to the fourth quarter of the company’s fiscal 2013 from the third quarter, thus lowering his estimate for third quarter earnings by 4 cents, to 69 cents a share, and raising his estimate of fourth quarter earnings by three cents, to 62 cents a share from 59 cents a share.

Goldman lowered his earnings estimates for Tyson Foods, noting that “Street estimates for chicken margins probably need to come down for [fiscal year 2014].” Beef packing margins are expected to remain soft but hog prices will “rise meaningfully around the first of the new year, as the PED virus … takes effect on supply.” All in all, then, Goldman dropped his full year 2014 estimate to $2.25 from $3.19 and his 2015 estimates to $2.15 from $2.41.

Finally, the analyst says that Sanderson Farms, like Tyson, should see the benefits of cheaper corn offset by a higher chicken supply, and the company’s fiscal year earnings is expected to bring in $5.49, down from $6.57 in fiscal 2014, and for fiscal 2015, Goldman is cutting his earnings estimate to $1.24 to $326.

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