Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/11/13


USDA is predicting reduced beef, pork and poultry output in both 2013 and 2014 as compared to its previous forecasts in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

2013
For 2013, the beef production is nearly unchanged as a lower third-quarter estimate is largely offset by higher expected fourth-quarter production.

Pork production is reduced from last month based on third-quarter data and a lower-than-expected pace of slaughter in October and early November.

The broiler production forecast is lowered, as higher third quarter production is more than offset by lower expected fourth-quarter production. Turkey production is reduced for both the third and fourth quarters. Hatchery data points to a sharper-than-expected contraction in fourth-quarter production.

2014
For 2014, the beef production forecast is reduced slightly from September on lower placements of cattle in feedlots during 2014.

The pork production forecast is reduced for 2014. In the September Hogs and Pigs report, producers indicated intentions to expand sows farrowing through early 2014 and moderating feed costs will support farrowing increases during 2014.

However, the 2014 pork production forecast has been tempered by continuing reports of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) outbreaks.

Broiler production is raised for 2014 as moderating feed costs support continued modest growth in broiler flocks.

The turkey production forecast is reduced as turkey prices in the third quarter were weaker-than-expected and the contraction in production forecast for late 2013 is expected to carry into early 2014.

Imports, Exports
Beef imports are reduced for 2013 as based on the current pace of imports with the lower level carried through into 2014. Despite lower U.S. beef production, which would increase demand for imports, global supplies are tight and demand by competing importers is expected to limit growth in U.S. imports.

Beef exports are higher for 2013 based on the strength of shipments to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged from September.

Pork exports are reduced from September based on the pace of exports and lowered for 2014 on slightly weaker demand in Asia.

The 2013 broiler export forecast is raised slightly, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for 2013 but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged.

Prices
Cattle prices for 2013 and 2014 are raised from September as demand for fed cattle is strong.
Hog prices for both 2013 and 2014 are raised on tighter-than-expected supplies and firm demand.
The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2013 are little changed from September and forecasts for 2014 are unchanged.

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