Source: USDA ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE, 11/15/13

Beef/Cattle: Prospects for a large corn crop, good prospects for wheat pasture this
winter, and anticipation of higher prices for fed and feeder cattle all combine to
present a more positive outlook for cattle and beef sectors and opportunities for
beginning to expand the national beef cow herd.

Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. cattle imports through August are down 20 percent from a year
earlier and are expected to fall 15 percent for the year. The forecast for U.S. beef imports in
2013 and 2014 were lowered due to weaker shipments this year and tight global supplies
expected next year. Beef exports have increased year-to-date, especially to Japan and Hong
Kong. As a result, the 2013 forecast for U.S. exports was raised to 2.458 billion pounds.

Pork/Hogs: Relatively high hog prices and moderating feed costs are likely to encourage producers to increase farrowings in 2014. The first-half 2014 production forecast was tempered, however, by continued reports of porcine epidemic diarrhea. Pork production in 2014 is expected to be almost 27.8 billion pounds, 2.6 percent above production this year. July and August pork retail prices were record high, likely influenced by high beef prices.

Poultry: Broiler meat production in fourth-quarter 2013 is forecast at 9.5 billion pounds, 3.3 percent higher than a year earlier. Broiler meat production in 2014 is forecast at 38.9 billion pounds, an increase of 2.9 percent from 2013.

Broiler integrators are expected to have an incentive to expand production in 2014, mostly due to
significantly lower expected prices for corn and soybean meal. Turkey meat production in fourth-quarter 2013 is forecast at 1.48 billion pounds, which would be 4 percent lower than a year earlier. Most of this decrease is expected to come from a smaller number of turkeys slaughtered, with only a small gain in average liveweight at slaughter. Turkey meat production in 2014 is forecast at 6 billion pounds, which would be an increase of 1.7 percent from the previous year. This forecast is a decrease of 95 million pounds from the previous forecast, as turkey poult placements continue to be significantly lower compared with a year earlier.

Poultry Trade: Broiler and Turkey shipments in August were down from a year ago while egg products exports were up significantly. Broiler shipments totaled 628.8 million pounds in August 2013, a decrease of 3 percent from a year earlier. Turkey shipments decreased 14.1 percent from a year ago, totaling 66.3 million pounds, while egg exports totaled 34.7 million dozen in August 2013, a 45.1 percent increase from last August.

Dairy: Feed prices are expected to moderate in 2014, easing profit pressure on producers and leading to a modest increase in herd size in 2014. Imports on both a fats and skims-solids basis are forecast lower this month than in September and exports are raised. Exports on both a fats and skims-solids basis will slip in 2014 compared with 2013 as foreign competition increases.