Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/28/13

Fourth-quarter 2013 broiler meat production is forecast at 9.5 billion pounds, 3.3 percent higher than a year earlier, according to USDA.

The increase in production in fourth-quarter 2013 is expected to be driven by both a higher number of birds slaughtered and an increase in average liveweight, borne out by preliminary slaughter data over the last several weeks, the agency explained in its most recent Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Broiler meat production in third-quarter 2013 was 9.68 billion pounds, up 3.3 percent from the same period in 2012. The increase was the result of 1.8 percent more broilers slaughtered, to 2.2 billion birds. In addition, average liveweight at slaughter was 5.89 pounds, 1.3 percent higher than in third-quarter 2012.
Broiler meat production in 2014 is forecast at 38.9 billion pounds, an increase of 2.9 percent from 2013.

This forecast is 150 million pounds higher than the previous forecast. In 2014, the increase in broiler meat production is expected to come mainly from a higher number of birds slaughtered, but average bird liveweights are also expected to be higher than in 2013.

Broiler integrators are expected to expand production due to the combination of large drops in the prices for corn and soybean meal and expected growth in the domestic economy. Broiler producers will also gain somewhat from expected strong prices in 2014 for most beef products.

Recent weekly broiler hatchery report seems to indicate a divide between the number of eggs placed in incubators and the number of chicks placed for growout.  From Oct. 5 through Nov. 2, chicks placed for growout averaged 157.1 million per week, only 1.5 percent higher than in the same period in 2012. Looking at a 5-week moving average, 3 weeks earlier, eggs placed in incubators averaged 191.1 million eggs per week, 3.1 percent higher than during the same time period the previous year.

Although there is always a difference in the absolute number of eggs placed in incubators and the number of chicks placed for growout, the difference in the two 5- week moving averages is normally not this wide. The differences in the two series could point to significant differences in the number of broilers reaching market size over the next six to eight weeks.

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