Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/28/13

Even as U.S. pork slaughter schedules are expected to increase seasonally during the quarter, tight supplies of hogs may temper the size of slaughter during November and December, according to USDA.
Fourth-quarter 2013 pork production is forecast at 6.23 billion pounds, down fractionally from 2012 and a reduction from the September forecast.

The reduction reflects a lower than expected pace of slaughter, which was well below projections in October as packers reduced Saturday slaughters during the month.

The September 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intended to increase farrowings in both the last quarter of 2013 (September-November) and the first quarter of 2014 (December-February).

Relatively high hog prices and moderating feed prices are likely to encourage producers to increase farrowings through 2014, USDA predicted in its latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report. However, the production forecasts for the first half of 2014 have been tempered by continuing reports of outbreaks of porcine epidemic diarrhea, the agency noted.

For 2014, pork production is forecast at almost 27.8 billion pounds, an increase of 2.6 percent.
Fourth-quarter prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent lean hogs are expected to be $63 to $65 per hundredweight, more than 9 percent above a year ago.

With growth in production in 2014, live hog prices for the first and second quarters of 2014 are expected to average $59 to $63 and $61 to $67 per hundredweight, respectively, with the annual hog prices averaging $59 to $63, about 6 percent below 2013.

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