Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 11/29/13

Turkey meat production in fourth-quarter 2013 is forecast at 1.48 billion pounds, 4 percent lower than a year earlier, according to USDA. Most of this decrease is expected to come from fewer turkeys slaughtered, with a small gain in average liveweight at slaughter.

U.S. turkey meat production in third-quarter 2013 was 1.44 billion pounds, down 2.7 percent from a year earlier. The decrease in turkey production was due to a lower number of turkeys slaughtered, as average liveweights at slaughter were higher.

The number of turkeys slaughtered in third-quarter 2013 was 60 million, down 5 percent from a year earlier. This is the fourth quarter in a row where the number of birds slaughtered has been lower than in the same quarter a year earlier. This decrease in the number of birds slaughtered was partially offset by gains in the average liveweight at slaughter to 29.9 pounds, 2.5 percent higher than a year earlier.

Turkey meat production in 2014 is forecast at 6 billion pounds, which would be an increase of 1.7 percent from the previous year, USDA predicted in its most recent Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report. This is a decrease of 95 million pounds from the previous forecast, as turkey poult placements continue to be significantly lower than the previous year.

The decline in turkey production is expected to result from a combination of lower prices in 2013 for both whole birds and many turkey parts. Production is expected to begin to expand in the second half of the year as turkey processors determine that falling feed costs more than offset lower prices and strong competition from the broiler industry in both the domestic and export markets.

Even with lower turkey meat production over the second and third quarters of this year, overall turkey stocks have remained above the previous year throughout 2013. Cold storage holdings of turkey products at the end of September were 542 million pounds, 4 percent higher than a year earlier.

The higher cold storage levels for overall turkey products conceals differences in the cold storage levels for whole hens and toms and other turkey products.

Stocks of turkey products totaled 216 million pounds at the end of the third quarter, almost identical to the previous year. The fact that stocks of turkey products are about even with the previous year is due partly to the lower overall turkey production and partly to continued relatively strong turkey product exports.

Overall turkey cold storage holdings at the end of 2013 are estimated at 300 million pounds, 20 million pounds lower than the previous estimate and about even with cold storage holdings at the end of 2012. In 2014, the quarterly ending stocks forecasts are expected to be slightly higher throughout the year.

With higher stocks of whole birds, there has been downward pressure on whole turkey prices. Prices for whole frozen hen turkeys at the wholesale level averaged $1 per pound in third-quarter 2013, down from $1.08 per pound in third-quarter 2012.

Whole frozen hen prices are expected to average $1.01-$1.05 per pound in fourth-quarter 2013, down about 3 cents from the $1.06 per pound average in fourth-quarter 2012

The quarterly price forecasts for frozen whole hens in 2014 are expected to be very-close-to-slightly-lower than the levels seen in 2013.

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