Source: USDA, 12/3/13

Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade

Fiscal 2014 agricultural exports are forecast at $137 billion, up $2.0 billion from the
August forecast but $3.9 billion below fiscal 2013’s record high. Compared with the
August forecast, grain and feed exports are forecast down $700 million, mostly due to
lower unit values for wheat and certain feed products. The fiscal 2014 forecast for
oilseed exports is up $2.4 billion on higher unit values and record early-season sales of
soybeans and soybean meal. Cotton exports are forecast down $700 million this quarter
as market reactions to expected changes in China’s reserve policy have resulted in lower
prices. Horticultural exports are unchanged at a record $34.5 billion. The forecast for
combined livestock, poultry, and dairy is raised $700 million to a record $31.8 billion on
higher pork, dairy, and beef exports.

U.S. agricultural imports are forecast at a record $109.5 billion, down $3.7 billion from
August, but $5.7 billion higher than in fiscal 2013. Increases in import value are
expected for most products in 2014, with the largest gains in horticultural products and
sugar and tropical products. The U.S. agricultural trade surplus is expected to fall by
$9.6 billion in fiscal 2014, to $27.5 billion. This would be the smallest surplus
since 2009.

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