Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 1/10/14

USDA increased its beef production forecast for 2014, but reduced its pork and turkey production forecasts in its latest World Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Pork
For pork, the report noted the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released on Dec. 27, indicated that the September-November pig crop was fractionally below a year earlier which will constrain supplies of slaughter hogs in early 2014.

Although producers intend to farrow more sows in the first half of 2014, the impacts of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) will likely slow growth in pigs per litter and keep supplies of market hogs relatively tight during 2014.

USDA now predicts commercial pork production in 2014 at 23.6 billion pounds, down from 23.9 billion pounds predicted last month. This would still be an increase from an estimated 23.2 billion pounds of pork produced in 2013.

Pork imports and exports for both 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.
USDA raised its average hog price outlook for 2014 by $1 per hundredweight to a range of $60 to $64.

Beef
Beef production is raised for 2014 as higher-than-expected placements in the later part of 2013 and expected availability of winter pasture support increased cattle marketings and slaughter during the year.

USDA raised its commercial beef production forecast for 2014 to 24.3 billion pounds from 24.2 million forecast last month. This would still be a significant decline, however, from the estimated 25.7 billion pounds produced in 2013.  
Beef imports are unchanged for 2013, but are raised slightly for 2014. Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 as the pace of exports over the past several months has been strong.

For 2014, the cattle price forecast is raised from last month as demand for fed cattle remains strong. USDA raised its average steer price forecast for 2014 by $1 per hundredweight to a range of $129 to $138.

Poultry
USDA made no change in its 2014 broiler production forecast.

The 2013 broiler export forecast is raised slightly based on exports to date, but the forecast for 2014 is unchanged. Turkey exports for 2013 and 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Demand for broiler meat is firm, supported by tight supplies of beef. USDA raised its average broiler price forecast for 2014 by 1 cent per pound to a range of 92 cents to 99 cents per pound.

Lower forecast production is expected to support turkey prices in early 2014.  USDA narrowed its turkey price forecast range to 98 cents to $1.04 per pound from last month’s range of 97 cents to $1.04.

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.