Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 1/31/14

The number of U.S. cases of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) jumped by 215 during the week of Jan. 19, the largest weekly spike since the disease was first reported in April, as some analysts fear more severe impacts than USDA has forecasted.

The recent jump puts the total number of confirmed cases at 2,692 in 23 states as of the week ended Jan. 25, according to USDA data (available for download here). Of those, 1,006, or some 40 percent, were confirmed in Iowa.

Canada, meanwhile, just reported its fourth case of PEDv a week after discovering its first. Outbreaks in central and northwest Mexico began near the third quarter of 2013 as well.

Although there is no official count, industry analysts estimate that as many as 4 million pigs have been killed by PEDv in the U.S.

In a report on the first-quarter outlook for the global pork industry, Rabobank calls the effect of PEDv in North America “the main wildcard in the global market this quarter,“ in terms of its potential impact on pork production in and exports from this region in 2014.

“Rabobank expects the impact in the U.S. to be more severe than forecast by the USDA and believes it will likely hamper U.S. pork production growth into 2014,” the firm’s Albert Vernooij said. “This might also pressure U.S. export volumes, presenting opportunities for the other exporters.”

Nonetheless, Rabobank said the price outlook for the global pork market for the rest of the first quarter and into the second quarter is steady, and that combined with lower feed costs, this trend will be positive for farmers’ margins.

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