Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/10/14


USDA lowered its 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler and turkey production in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef
For beef, relatively large cattle placements in the fourth quarter of 2013 are expected to carry through into the first half of 2014, which will result in higher slaughter in 2014. Cow slaughter is also expected to remain relatively strong during the first half of 2014 with favorable cull cow prices.

Beef import and export forecasts for 2014 are unchanged from last month.

Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting tight supplies and recent price strength for fed cattle. USDA projected steer prices will average $132 to $140 per hundredweight, up from a range of $129 to $138 projected last month.

Pork
Pork production is lowered as reports indicate that Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) continues to spread.

Pork exports are lowered as tight supplies and high prices reduce competitiveness.
The hog price forecast is raised on reduced supplies of market hogs and strong demand. USDA projected barrows and gilts prices will average $61 to $65 per hundredweight, up from a range of $60 to $64 projected last month.

Poultry
Broiler production is reduced on slower growth in slaughter. Turkey production is reduced as recent eggs-set and poult placements remain below a year earlier.

The broiler export forecast is lowered as weaker-than-expected December exports and recent weakness in leg quarter prices may reflect reduced demand. Turkey exports are unchanged.

Broiler, turkey, and egg prices are raised on expected demand strength and reduced supplies of competing meats in 2014.

USDA projected broiler prices will average 94 cents to $1.01 per pound, up from a range of 92 cents to 99 cents projected last month. Turkey prices a forecast at $1.00 to $1.06 per pound, up from 98 cents to $1.04 projected a month ago.

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