Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 2/18/14


U.S. red meat and poultry per capita consumption is expected to decline again in 2014, but USDA sees this year as the bottom for consumption and predicts a fairly steady increase through 2023.
In its “USDA Agricultural Projections to 2023” report, the agency notes that since 2007, lower overall meat production and increased net exports have resulted in higher consumer prices and lower per capita consumption in the United States.

Annual average consumption of red meats and poultry has fallen from over 221 pounds per capita in 2004-07 and is projected to be less than 203 pounds in 2014.

As production increases, however, per capita consumption of red meats and poultry is projected to rise to about 215 pounds by 2023.

Beef
U.S. beef consumption, however, is predicted to continue to decline through 2016, when it bottoms out before starting to rise incrementally through 2023.

USDA estimates U.S. per capita beef consumption at 56.5 in 2013 and predicts it will decline to 53 pounds in 2014, then to 50.9 in 2015, and bottom out at 49.4 pounds in 2016.

The near-term decline reflects reductions in beef production over the next several years. As beef production increases in subsequent years, per capita consumption grows to 52.1 pounds by 2023.

Pork
U.S. per capita pork consumption is projected to rise through 2017, as gains in production are large enough to accommodate both increased domestic use as well as rising U.S. pork exports.
Per capita consumption tapers off slightly from 2018 onward as pork production gains slow.
USDA forecast 2014 per capita pork consumption at 47.1 pounds, peaking at 49.1 pounds in 2017 then declining to 48.6 pounds by 2023.

Poultry
U.S. poultry production increases throughout the projection period. Per capita consumption rises over the next 10 years and, in contrast to red meats, surpasses levels of the past decade.
USDA projected 2014 per capital broiler consumption at 83.7 pounds, steadily rising to 94.7 pounds by 2023.

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