Source: Chris Scott, MEATINGPLACE, 3/25/14

The overall effect of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDv) on the nation’s hog supply will be steeper and longer than first estimated, according to a new report from Rabobank Group.

The global financial services company — which supplies financing to the food, beverage and agribusiness industries — predicts that North American hog production and slaughter will decrease by as much as 7 percent this year and will be 12.5 percent below 2013 levels through 2015. Rabobank says that the virus has already affected about 60 percent of the U.S. breeding herd, 28 percent of the herd in Mexico and is moving into Canada. The decline in North American hog slaughter may decline by nearly 18.5 million hogs this year and next. The 2014 drop alone would be the largest in 30 years, according to Rabobank.

Rabobank also predicts that the U.S. poultry industry is poised to reap the benefits from the PEDv outbreak as U.S. beef production is expected to decline by nearly 6 percent this year. The situation places poultry as the “protein of last resort” as chicken prices and margins climb in the spring and summer, the report notes.

The latest U.S. Dept. of Agriculture estimates report that more than 4,700 U.S. hogs have been affected by PEDv in 27 states.

For more stories, go to www.meatingplace.com.