Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 5/12/1
 
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production in 2015 is projected to be above 2014 as higher pork and poultry production more than offsets continued declines in beef production, USDA said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates  (WASDE) report. For 2014, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from last month on lower pork and broiler production.

Beef
Beef production is forecast lower as a declining beef cattle inventory and potential heifer retention during late 2014 and into 2015 is expected to limit cattle placements in late 2014 and into 2015. Thus, despite expectations of heavier slaughter weights, tight supplies of fed cattle for slaughter and reduced cow slaughter will result in lower beef production.

The 2014 beef export forecast is lowered from last month on March export data. Imports are forecast higher on strong processing-grade beef demand and tight supplies of domestic processing beef. Even so, for 2014, the fed cattle price forecast is lowered from last month as prices for mid-2014 are reduced. For 2015, fed cattle prices are forecast above 2014 as supplies continue to tighten and demand for beef remains strong.

Pork
Pork production is expected to increase as producers respond to the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) by increasing farrowings and feeding hogs to heavier weights. However, a slow recovery in growth in pigs per litter is expected to constrain increases in availability of market hogs in 2015.

Pork supplies reflect limited availability of hogs due to the impacts of PEDv on pigs per litter. Pork exports are unchanged from last month as high March exports are expected to be followed by lower exports later in the year.

Hog prices are up from last month on tight supplies. However, for 2015 hog prices are forecast lower than in 2014 as hog supplies increase.

Poultry
Broiler and turkey prices are forecast higher despite increased production, as demand remains firm in the face of relatively tight red meat supplies. Broiler production, meanwhile, is lowered on the pace of slaughter and a slow increase in egg sets and chicks placed. Turkey production is increased slightly based on the current pace of slaughter.

Broiler and turkey exports are forecast higher on expanded supplies and continued strength in foreign demand but are adjusted to reflect March trade data.

Broiler prices are higher as prices remain strong. Turkey prices are unchanged.

Corn
Corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013/14 record with higher expected yields more than offsetting the year-to- year reduction in planted area. The corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013/14, based on a weather adjusted yield trend model and assuming normal mid-May planting progress and summer weather. Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at a record 15.1 billion bushels, up 330 million from 2013/14.

U.S. corn use for 2014/15 is projected 2 percent lower than in 2013/14. Feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013/14. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2014/15 is expected to be unchanged on the year with gasoline consumption expected to remain flat in 2015. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from the 2013/14 projection. The season-average farm price is projected at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel, down from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel for 2013/14.

Corn exports for 2014/15 are projected lower for Ukraine and the United States, but higher for Argentina and Paraguay. World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons on higher use in China, Brazil, the European Union, Mexico, and Japan. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at a 15-year high.

Soybeans
Soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4 percent from 2013/14 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.

Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6 percent. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million, and the Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from 2013/14. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.2 million as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops.
U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013/14 on record supplies and competitive prices. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013/14. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013/14. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013/14.

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