Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 6/11/14



USDA expects U.S. soybean supplies to drop to just 125 million bushels by September 2014 (before this year’s crop is harvested), putting soybean ending stocks for the 2013/14 crop year at less than 4 percent of total use and even lower than analysts, on average, were expecting.

In its World Supply and Demand Estimates Report, USDA dropped its soybean ending stocks estimate by 5 million bushels, reflecting higher crush projections and increased projected soybean meal exports.

According to a pre-report Reuters poll, analysts on average were expecting U.S. soybean 2013/14 ending stocks at about 127 million bushels.

Relative to use, this would be the lowest soybean supply on record, according to calculations by analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner Inc. analysts in the Daily Livestock Report

Conversely, USDA expects soybean ending stocks by September 2015 to rise to 325 million bushels, pushing the stocks/use ratio over 9 percent and even larger than analysts’ estimates that averaged 319 million bushels.

USDA predicted U.S. soybean prices would average $13.10 and soybean meal prices would average $485 in the year that ends this September. USDA left its average price forecasts unchanged for soybeans and soybean meal in the 2014/15 marketing year at $9.75 to $11.75 for soybeans and  $355 to $395 per ton for soybean meal.

Soybean meal is a key ingredient in animal feed, particularly for poultry.

Corn
USDA left its projections for the 2014/15 U.S. corn crop, corn use and corn prices unchanged from May.
Corn prices are expected to average $4.45 to $4.65 in the year ending this September and average $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel in the year that ends in September 2015.  

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