Source: Michael Fielding, MEATINGPLACE, 6/11/14



The forecast for total meat production in 2014 is lowered from last month as lower beef and broiler production more than offsets increased pork and turkey production, according to the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report (WASDE) by the USDA.

Beef production is lowered as the pace of steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter has been reduced. However, carcass weights are forecast slightly higher as feed prices have moderated.

Pork production is forecast higher due to a combination of larger second-quarter slaughter and higher carcass weights for the year. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released June 27 and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of the year.

Broiler production is lowered from last month as the pace of expansion remains slow.

Turkey production is raised on higher second-quarter production.

For 2015, no change is made to red meat or turkey forecasts, but the forecast for broiler production is reduced for early 2015.
Imports/exports

Forecasts for 2014 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong. Additionally, no change is made to the export forecast.

Pork imports and exports are raised based on April trade data. Broiler exports are reduced as production forecasts are lowered from last month. The slower pace of exports is expected to carry into 2015. Turkey exports are unchanged from last month.
Price forecasts

Cattle, hog, and turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. Broiler prices are raised for 2014 as supplies are forecast smaller, but 2015 prices unchanged from last month.

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