Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 6/23/14

U.S. beef exports this year through April were up 7 percent, while beef imports were up 6 percent, driven largely by increased imports from Australia and Canada, according to USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report.

Beef imports
Beef imports accelerated from Australia (+26 percent), and Canada (+11 percent), more than offsetting lower shipments from New Zealand (-5 percent), Uruguay (-24 percent), and Brazil (-25 percent).

Beef imports typically peak in the second quarter of the year to fulfill increased demand for processing-grade beef during the summer. Imports were especially strong in April, reaching the highest monthly total since July 2007.

Imports from Australia exceeded 96 million pounds, the highest monthly total from Australia in five years. Australian beef production has risen 11 percent this year through April as continuing drought has caused record-high cattle slaughter.
Total Australian exports through April have risen 19 percent as a result of higher production.

U.S. beef imports from Canada have also jumped this year as higher U.S. beef prices and a lower exchange rate have increased returns for Canadian suppliers.

The forecast for U.S. beef imports in 2014 was raised to 2.446 billion pounds, almost 9 percent above 2013. Demand for imported beef has risen as weekly U.S. federally inspected cow and bull beef production through the end of May is nearly 11 percent lower than a year earlier.

Imports in 2015 are forecast at 2.445 billion pounds, nearly unchanged from 2014. U.S. beef production is not expected to increase next year, as herd rebuilding will take several years.

Although import demand will remain strong as a result, the United States is likely to face increasing competition from Asia for global beef supplies, USDA predicted.

Beef exports
U.S. beef exports were up 7 percent year-over-year through April, led by higher shipments to Japan, Mexico, and Hong Kong.
Japanese demand for U.S. beef has risen considerably over the past year since beef imports from U.S. cattle aged 30 months or younger were allowed in February 2013. Total Japanese beef imports through April are roughly equivalent to year-earlier levels, but the U.S. market share has increased while imports from Australia and Mexico have declined.

U.S. beef exports to Mexico have also increased steadily since last summer despite rising prices for U.S. beef. Beef production fell last year in Mexico after severe drought led to a reduction in cattle inventories.

Total U.S. exports are forecast to fall 3 percent in 2014 to 2.508 billion pounds. Despite higher year-over-year exports during the first four months of the year, lower U.S. beef production and higher prices are expected to curb export demand in the latter half of the year.

This trend is likely to extend into 2015, when exports are forecast to decline 3 percent year-over-year to 2.425 billion pounds.

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