Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 7/11/14


USDA raised its forecast for total meat production in 2014 in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, predicting more beef, less pork and about the same amount of chicken as it did a month ago.

2014
Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights.

Pork production is lowered as USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated a slower-than-expected expansion in farrowings during the second quarter. This implies lower than previously forecast hog slaughter later in the year, but strong hog prices and lower feed costs are expected to provide incentives to feed hogs to heavier weights.

No change was made to broiler production as the production expansion remains muted. Turkey production is raised on higher second- quarter production.

2015
For 2015, beef and broiler production is forecast higher, but pork production is forecast lower.

Cattle slaughter is forecast higher in early 2015 based on 2014 placements. Pork production is reduced as supplies of market hogs will remain relatively tight. Broiler production is forecast higher as lower expected feed costs support a more rapid increase in production.

Imports/exports
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are raised as demand for processing grade beef remains strong. Exports for 2014 are raised on recent data. Pork imports for 2014 are reduced slightly.

Despite high prices, pork exports remain robust and forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are raised.

Broiler and turkey exports are raised for 2014 based on May data, but forecasts for 2015 are unchanged from last month.

Prices
Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2014 are raised from last month on the strength of demand. Broiler price forecasts for both 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on June price data.

The hog price forecast is raised for 2015 on expectations of tighter supplies and continued strong demand. Prices for cattle, broilers, turkey, and eggs are unchanged at the midpoint for 2015.

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