Source: NC CIVITAS, 8/6/14

The latest Civitas Institute Poll of registered North Carolina Republican and unaffiliated voters indicates the 2016 GOP presidential race is wide open.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was the choice of 16 percent; New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul were favored by 9 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was picked by 8 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Tex. Sen. Ted Cruz were chosen by 7 percent. Three percent of respondents picked Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, with former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum getting the same percentage.

It should be noted the poll considered only a sample of noteworthy Republican contenders.

Hillary Clinton was the overwhelming favorite when compared to selected prominent Democrats. As with the Republican hopefuls, questions about the primary were asked solely of those eligible to vote in that party’s primary: Democrats and unaffiliated voters.

In questions asked of all registered voters about hypothetical 2016 presidential contests, Clinton and selected GOP contenders finished in virtual ties. The same Republican hopefuls had an edge over Vice President Joe Biden.

The live-caller poll of 600 registered North Carolina voters took place July 28-29, 2014, and had a margin of error of plus/minus 4 percentage points. Of respondents, 25 percent were contacted via cellphone.

Text of questions:*
And now looking ahead to 2016…
If the election for President were being held today, would you be more likely to vote for …
41%       The Republican Candidate
39%       The Democratic Candidate
3%          The Independent / Third Party Candidate
16%       Undecided/Depends
1%          Refused

( REGISTERED REPUBLICAN OR UNAFFILIATED VOTERS)
“And if the Republican Primary for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you vote between …”
9%          Chris Christie
16%       Jeb Bush
9%          Rand Paul
8%          Marco Rubio
3%          Bobby Jindal
3%          Scott Walker
7%          Rick Perry
3%          Rick Santorum
7%          Ted Cruz
11%       or will you not be voting in the Republican Primary
1%          Other (Specify)
22%       Undecided
1%          Refused

(REGISTERED DEMOCRAT OR UNAFFILIATED VOTERS)
“And if the Democratic Primary for President of the United States were being held today and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you vote between …”
40%       Hillary Clinton
9%          Joe Biden
12%       Elizabeth Warren
–            Martin O’Malley
1%          Howard Dean
3%          Andrew Cuomo
2%          Bernie Sanders
–            Amy Klobuchar
1%          Jim Webb
15%       or will you not be voting in the Democratic Primary
–            Other (Specify)
14%       Undecided
3%          Refused

(ASKED OF ALL RESPONDENTS)
“Now I am going to read you some potential presidential matchups. For each I want you to tell me who you vote for, based on JUST the candidates I mention. Even if you prefer someone else, I want to know who you would vote for between only the candidates I name. If the 2016 Presidential election were held today, and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote between …”
Republican                        Democrat                           Undecided                  Refused
Chris Christie, the Republican and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
47%                                     46%                                     6%                                        1%
Jeb Bush, the Republican and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
48%                                     47%                                     4%                                        1%
Rand Paul, the Republican and Hillary Clinton, the Democrat?
47%                                     48%                                     5%                                        1%
Chris Christie, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat?
49%                                     42%                                     7%                                        2%
Jeb Bush, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat?
50%                                     44%                                     5%                                        2%
Rand Paul, the Republican and Joe Biden, the Democrat?
49%                                     44%                                     6%                                        1%

*Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This poll of 600 registered voters in North Carolina was conducted July 28-29, 2014 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ. All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered general election voters in North Carolina. Twenty-five percent of the respondents were cell phone-only users. For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in at least one of the past two general elections (2010, 2012) or be newly registered to vote since November 7, 2012.The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.”

Civitas conducts the only regular live-caller polling of North Carolina voters. For more information on Civitas polling, see http://www.nccivitas.org/category/poll/.

The Civitas Institute is a policy institute based in Raleigh, N.C. More information is available at www.nccivitas.org, or contact Jim Tynen at (919) 834-2099 or james.tynen@nccivitas.org.