Source: MEATINGPLACE, 9/1/14


State-of-the-art climate models may be underestimating the risk of drought lasting a decade in the U.S. Southwest, according to new research that suggests the chance of such a prolonged dry spell may be at least 80 percent.

Current climate model projections put the risk of a decade-long drought at less than 50 percent, according to scientists at Cornell University and the University of Arizona.

But those models omit certain observational data on hydro-climate fluctuations that may provide a more complete view of prolonged drought risk, they said.

When that data is included, the risk of a persistent drought may be higher than 90 percent in some areas, the study authors said. The likelihood of a drought lasting more than 35 years is between 20 percent and 50 percent, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-year mega-drought is between 5 percent and 10 percent.

“These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multi-decadal mega-drought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region,” the authors wrote in a summary of the study available online. 

Their research will be published in the Journal of Climate, a publication of the American Meteorological Society.
For an in-depth look at how drought is impacting the nation's beef herd and industry, read our special report, Dry Age Beef.

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