Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 9/24/14


USDA’s Chicken & Egg and Cold Storage reports indicate continued high prices as supplies remain tight and flock rebuilding is slow, J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman said in a note to investors.

While total broiler-type hatching layers inched up just 2.2 percent – still 1.3 percent below the 10-year average – Goldman reiterated the firm’s belief that the pullet flock won’t begin to grow to any significant degree until the year’s end or even early next year.

Although the number of broiler-type pullet chicks hatched rose 4.3 percent year-on-year, the month-to-month figures can be “erratic” and, for example, were down in the prior period, he said. 

“We await at least 2-3 consecutive months of higher hatchings before gaining confidence that a sustained rebuilding effort is underway,” Goldman wrote, adding that the number of eggs per layer remain down year-on-year as well.

In the recent cold storage report, chicken inventories were down 13 percent from last year, the lowest month since August 1998.

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