Source: Tom Johnston, MEATINGPLACE, 10/10/14


The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are raised from last month, USDA said in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

For both 2014 and 2015, the increase in beef production is driven by heavier carcass weights as lower corn prices encourage producers to market heavier cattle.

Pork production in 2014 is reduced from last month as slower gains in carcass weights in the second half of the year more than offset higher expected fourth-quarter slaughter. For 2015, the production forecast is raised.

USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the decline in third- quarter pigs per litter was less than during the first half of the year. With higher indicated farrowing intentions for the last quarter of 2014 and into 2015, and slightly more rapid forecast recovery in pigs per liter, it is expected that a greater number of hogs will be available for slaughter during 2015.

Increased pork production will also be supported by higher carcass weights.

Broiler production for 2014 is unchanged, but lower forecast feed costs are expected to encourage more rapid production growth in 2015. Turkey production for 2014 is slightly higher based on production data to date; however, the production forecast for 2015 is unchanged.

Imports/exports
Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are unchanged from last month. Beef exports for 2014 are lowered based on recent trade data, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.

Pork imports are unchanged for 2014, but are reduced for 2015, as U.S. production is forecast higher and prices lower. Pork exports are forecast higher on strong demand in 2014 and more competitive prices in 2015. Broiler exports are raised for 2014 on current strength of demand, but the 2015 forecast is unchanged. Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015.
The cattle price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged from last month. The hog price forecast for 2014 is unchanged, but the 2015 price is lowered on larger supplies. The broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are raised on robust demand. The turkey price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.

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