Source: HIGH POINT UNIVERSITY, 10/13/14

The HPU Poll finds that in North Carolina’s pivotal senate race, Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker of the House Thom Tillis are tied at 40 percent each when N.C. likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today.

Housed in High Point University’s Survey Research Center in High Point, North Carolina, the HPU Poll selected three pivotal U.S. Senate races that may determine who controls the U.S. Senate – Colorado, New Hampshire and North Carolina – to gain a snapshot of campaigns that may determine the U.S. Senate’s leadership. HPU administered a live interviewer poll of North Carolina voters and worked with SurveyUSA to poll the other states.

“We have been saying all along that North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race had the potential to be extremely close. These results show that it may be a tie going into the home stretch. Voters make two basic decisions: whether to vote and for whom they will vote when they get there. This particular race will likely hinge on how partisans make that first decision,” says Dr. Martin Kifer, director of the HPU Poll. “Thinking about the results in these three races, we see some of the same factors playing out in North Carolina that are affecting incumbent re-election chances in our other highlighted states. President Obama’s approval is relatively low. People are pessimistic about the direction of the country. And the Republican Party makes a strong showing in the generic congressional ballot test.”

The results of the other competitive U.S. Senate races continued to indicate tight re-election battles for their respective incumbents. In New Hampshire, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen received support from 48 percent of likely voters while former U.S. Sen. from Massachusetts Scott Brown received 46 percent of the likely voters’ support. In Colorado, incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Udall received support from 42 percent of likely voters while U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner received 46 percent of the likely voters’ support.

Comparative results for these three U.S. Senate races, including the political indicators mentioned above are available at http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2014/10/32memoB.pdf or http://goo.gl/jk6haO.

Likely voters – North Carolina Senate race
If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for (names rotated) Republican Thom Tillis, or Democrat Kay Hagan, or Libertarian Sean Haugh?
Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 40 percent
Sean Haugh – 7 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 13 percent
(North Carolina likely voter sample surveyed between Sept. 30 and Oct. 9, n = 584 and margin of sampling error approximately = +/- 4.1 percent)