Source:  PUBLIC POLICY POLLING, 10/20/14

PPP's newest North Carolina poll finds a steady race, with Kay Hagan leading at 46% to 43% for Thom Tillis and 5% for Sean Haugh. This is the third month in a row that Hagan has held an advantage of either 3 or 4 points. In a two candidate race Hagan still leads Tillis 47/44, indicating that Haugh's potential 'spoiler effect' on the race is waning. Haugh's supporters only say their second choice would be Tillis by a 34/30 spread now, considerably closer than the difference was earlier in the campaign. 

Both candidates remain unpopular in the closing stretch of the contest, but Hagan at least fares a little bit better with voters than Tillis does. 41% of voters approve of the job she's doing to 50% who disapprove, for a -9 net approval rating. That's not good but it puts her ahead of Tillis who just 37% of voters see favorably to 49% who have a negative opinion, for a -12 net favorability rating.

There's nothing very surprising about where the candidates' support is coming from. Hagan is up 49/37 with women, 85/4 with African Americans, and 61/27 with young voters. Meanwhile Tillis is up 49/42 with men, 55/34 with white voters, and 54/37 with seniors. Tillis is ahead 43/38 with independents but in an unusual finding for North Carolina politics, Hagan is getting the same share of the Democratic vote (81%) that Tillis getting of the Republican vote and if you do that as a Democrat in North Carolina you're generally going to win given the party's voter registration advantage in the state.

It's still a close race but Hagan's lead- though small- has certainly been persistent and something dramatic may need to happen in the final two weeks to allow Tillis to come out on top.

Other notes from North Carolina:
-Voters in the state remain very closely divided in their feelings about state politics. 40% approve of the job Pat McCrory is doing to 43% who disapprove. The General Assembly continues to be very unpopular with a 25% approval rating to 52% of voters who disapprove of it, but despite Republican control voter anger with it doesn't seem to know party bounds. The Democrats have a 38/48 favorability rating, with the Republicans at 40/45. The generic legislative ballot is still very tight, with 46% of voters saying they would choose a Republican candidate and 44% a Democrat if the election was today. 

-UNC continues to lead the state in college football loyalties at 23%. The surprising finding may be who's moved into second place- Duke at 16%, with ECU and NC State tied at 13%, Appalachian State at 8%, and Wake Forest with the smallest fan base in the state at 4%. UNC leads in fan support among both Democrats and independents, and is tied with Duke among Republicans. ECU is the team of choice in Northeastern North Carolina but UNC is tops everywhere else, although it is quite close in the Mountains with Appalachian showing a lot of support.