Source:  PRESS RELEASE, 10/30/14

Incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan holds a steady lead over her Republican challenger with Election Day just days away, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

Hagan has solidified a 45-41 margin against Rep. Thom Tillis, the speaker of North Carolina's House of Representatives, since the Elon University Poll found the same numbers in early September. Another 6 percent of likely voters plan to support another candidate, while 7 percent remain undecided.

Hagan's strongest support is among women and those likely voters under 30, and she maintains an edge among true independents.

The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 687 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-25, 2014, and has a margin of error of 3.74 percentage points.

SUPPORT BY PARTY, GENDER and RACE
Both candidates draw strong support from members of their own base with less than 10 percent of self-identified Republicans and Democrats breaking rank on support of their party's nominee. However, self-described independents with no party leanings are beginning to make up their minds. Thirty-two percent of likely voters who call themselves independent plan to vote for Hagan - a drop of 6 percentage points since last month - while support for Tillis among independent likely voters remains steady at 27 percent.

Seventeen percent of independents said they plan to vote for someone else and 17 percent don't know which candidate they plan to support.

Differences by sex and race have remained constant since September. Women offer higher levels of support (52%-34%) favoring Hagan, while men support Tillis (48%-38%). Eighty-one percent of African-American likely voters said they plan to vote for Hagan. Fifty-one percent of whites support Tillis.

"Tillis has gained little ground with women as a sizable gender gap still remains between the two candidates," said Kenneth Fernandez, director of the Elon University Poll.