Source: MEATINGPLACE, 12/10/14

Beef slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to drop off to the point that it drags total meat production down for the year, despite heavy beef carcass weights and increased hog slaughter, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released by USDA today.

USDA lowered its forecast for total meat production in 2014 from last month, to 24.3 billion pounds for the year, down from a projection of 24.5 billion pounds in November.

Meanwhile, projections for beef imports for 2014 have been raised on the pace of imports to date, while the forecast for exports is unchanged. Both projections continue to reflect the historically small U.S. cattle herd and the lure of higher beef prices stateside.

For 2015, total U.S. meat production is forecast to increase slightly due to a small increase in beef production; other production forecasts are unchanged. USDA also expects a slight increase in beef imports again in 2015, with no expected change in exports.

Pork
The hog price forecast for 2014 is lowered on current prices, but the 2015 price is unchanged, according to the WASDE report. Pork import expectations have been boosted for 2014, but export forecasts have been reduced as relatively high prices are expected to encourage imports and limit sales opportunities. For 2015, the import forecast is raised but exports are unchanged.

Poultry
Forecasts for fourth quarter broiler and turkey production are unchanged. However, poultry (broiler and turkey) price forecasts for 2014 have increased, with turkey prices expected to rise again in 2015. USDA has made no change in either chicken or turkey export forecasts.

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