Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 12/24/14


USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report for the quarter ended Dec. 1 showed more sows being held back for breeding and an improvement in pigs saved per litter, indicating producers are taking advantage of cheaper feed to grow their herds and that the U.S.  herd is recovering from the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) losses of the previous year. 

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1, 2014 was 66.1 million head. This was up 2 percent from Dec. 1, 2013, and up 1 percent from Sept. 1, 2014. On average, analysts expected the inventory to be up 1.5 percent.

Breeding inventory, at 5.97 million head, was up 4 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the previous quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectation of a 3 percent rise from a year ago.

The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.23 for the September-November period, compared to 10.16 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.10 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.30 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

Market hog inventory, at 60.1 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from last quarter. Analysts were expecting a 1 percent rise from last year.

The September-November 2014 pig crop, at 29.4 million head, was up 4 percent from 2013. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.87 million head, up 3 percent from 2013. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 48 percent of the breeding herd.

Analysts on a Pork Board sponsored media call said improved pig crops could be evidence that much of the sow herd has built immunity to PEDV. The disease is deadly to baby pigs, but mothers can pass on their immunity to their litters.

Steiner Consulting Group analyst Altin Kato said it has been 15 years since breeding herds have built at the rate they are building now. He predicted farrowing numbers could be revised up from current projections in the coming quarters.

Lee Schulz, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at Iowa State University, predicted producers could continue to make money through 2015, which could result in record pig crops moving forward.

The analysts predicted hog farmers could see returns from about $83 to $88 per hundredweight in the first quarter of 2015. They predicted returns would decline in the fourth quarter of 2015 to around $78 per hundredweight as supply catches up with demand. The wildcard continues to be exports, as strong global demand is tempered by the impact of a strong dollar against other currencies.

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