Source: Michael Fielding, MEATINGPLACE, 12/24/14


Turkey meat production in October totaled 562 million pounds, 9 percent more than a year earlier. This follows a 12-percent increase in production in September, according to the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report of the Economic Research Service.

Even with these strong increases over the last 2 months, turkey meat production over the first 10 months of 2014 was 2 percent lower than during the same period in 2013.

In October, the sharp increase in turkey meat production was due to a strong increase in the number of birds slaughtered (up 7 percent to 23.2 million). This was boosted by an increase of 0.9 percent in the average liveweight of the birds to 30.1 pounds.

The cumulative number of turkeys slaughtered over the first 10 months of 2014 was down 2 percent from the same period in the previous year, while the cumulative average weight was fractionally higher.

Over the first 10 months of 2014, turkey poults placed for growout totaled 224 million, 2 percent higher than in 2013. The number of turkey eggs placed in incubators has also been higher, with almost 30 million in incubators at the beginning of November, 6 percent higher than the previous year. Given relatively strong prices and lower feed and energy costs, turkey integrators are expected to increase production in 2015.

Cold storage holdings of whole turkeys and turkey parts totaled 390 million pounds at the end of October 2014. This is down 94 million pounds from the previous month as this is the period when most whole birds and other turkey parts move out of cold storage to retail stores and food service.

Between the end of September and the end of October, stocks of whole turkeys fell by 73 million pounds and stocks of turkey products fell by 21 million pounds. This large decline in turkey stocks brought overall turkey stocks to 10 percent lower than the previous year.

During the first 10 months of 2014, overall turkey cold storage holdings were well below year-earlier levels. Stocks of whole toms and hens both declined between the end of September and the end of October; however, while stocks of whole hens at the end of October dropped to 112 million pounds, they were up 14 percent from the previous year, while stocks of toms also fell to 112 million pounds but were 21 percent lower than the previous year. The year-over-year decline in cold storage holdings for turkey parts was based on declines in all the broken-out categories with the exception of mechanically deboned meat (MDM).

During the first 11 months of 2014, the national price for frozen whole hens has averaged $1.08 per pound, 8 percent higher than during the same period in 2013. However, with higher stocks of whole hens in cold storage and higher production of turkey meat expected in fourth-quarter 2014 and into 2015, there likely will be downward pressure on wholesale prices.

This could be somewhat offset by lower stocks of whole toms and generally lower stocks of turkey parts. In November, wholesale prices for frozen whole hens averaged $1.19 per pound, up 12 percent from a year earlier.

Price increases for turkey parts at the wholesale level have varied widely, but with the exception of MDM they have all been stronger than the previous year. Prices for turkey breasts, drumsticks, wings, necks, boneless/skinless breasts, and thighs were all above their year-earlier levels in October.

Drumstick prices, while higher, were only about 2 to 3 percent above the previous year, while prices for boneless/skinless breast meat (toms) averaged $3.92 per pound, 92 percent higher than a year earlier. Higher production is expected to be offset by lower stocks in the first half of 2015, but whole turkey and most turkey part prices are expected to have some downward pressure in most of 2015.

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