Source: Chris Scott, MEATINGPLACE, 2/11/15


Lower feed costs are expected to lead to pork price declines over the next decade as beef prices initially rise and then fall as production increases, according to USDA’s long-term projections for the U.S. agriculture sector.

Livestock prices initially will reflect the production responses to lower feed costs as net returns provide economic incentives for expansion, according to the report. For pork, that will mean an initial rebound in prices as the industry produces more hogs that were adversely affected by PEDV last year. Then prices for pork – and broilers – will decline through most of the 10-year period as production levels rise.

Beef prices, however, will initially rise in the 10-year period as production declines and beef cow inventories are rebuilt, the report projects. Beef cattle prices will then drop for several years starting in 2018 when beef production is expected to increase.

The report also notes that lower prices for major U.S. crops, hogs and poultry over the next several years will result in declines in export values in 2015 and farm cash receipts through 2016. Global meat consumption also is projected to continue to increase with poultry consumption rising faster than pork and beef around the world over the next decade, the report added.

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