Source: Rita Jane Gabbett, MEATINGPLACE, 3/11/15


The 2015 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef production more than offsets increases in pork and broiler production, according to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef
Fed cattle slaughter is expected to be lower in the first-quarter, but cow slaughter remains higher than expected. In addition, carcass weights are reduced slightly in the first quarter. The 2015 cattle price is unchanged.

The 2015 beef import forecast is higher than last month as demand for processing grade beef remains strong and strength of the dollar makes the United States an attractive market. Beef exports for 2015 are reduced due to relatively high U.S. prices and the strong dollar.

Pork
Pork production is increased on higher first-quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, which will provide an indication of producers’ expectations to farrow sows through the third quarter.

The hog price forecast is reduced as greater production and lower exports imply greater supplies for the domestic market.
Pork exports are lowered based on lower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork imports are raised as the strong dollar makes the United States an attractive market despite large supplies of domestic pork.

Poultry
Broiler production is higher as hatchery data shows continued growth in chicks placed. Turkey and egg production is unchanged from last month.

Broiler prices are lowered on weaker demand and larger supplies of product. Turkey prices are unchanged.

The broiler export forecast is lowered as the strong dollar crimps demand. Turkey exports are also reduced.

Corn/Ethanol
Corn use in ethanol production is projected 50 million bushels lower based.  Reported corn use for ethanol for October through January implies a higher conversion rate than previously assumed. Partly offsetting the impact of the higher conversion rate is higher-than-expected December ethanol production and a stronger-than-expected pace of weekly production through February as reported by the Energy Information Administration.

The reduction in corn use for ethanol is offset by a 50-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use. Thus, expected total domestic disappearance is unchanged.

Corn exports are projected 50 million bushels higher based on commitments to date and higher projected global demand. Projected ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels.

The season-average farm price for corn is projected at $3.50 to $3.90 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.

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