Source:  Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 3/20/15

A larger-than-anticipated hog supply may strain slaughter capacity by the fourth quarter of 2015, according to Steve Meyer, head of Paragon Economics and co-author of the Daily Livestock Report. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) in the last months has been far less deadly to piglets than it was a year ago, and less of a factor than Meyer had expected. Based on a “more-or-less normal 5.4-day workweek,” Meyer wrote in DLR, hog slaughter capacity is about 2.438 million head per week.

But recent calculations indicate that the number of hogs heading for slaughter may exceed that capacity toward the end of the year. Meyer noted that capacity is somewhat elastic, that pork plants can extend their hours or add a Saturday shift.

However, if herd expansion continues and PEDV is not a factor, capacity constraint could create a market bottleneck in 2016. Clemens Food Group is planning a greenfield, 550,000-square-foot pork processing plant in Coldwater, Mich., the construction of which will go a long way toward meeting capacity needs. However, that plant is not expected to come online until 2017.

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