Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 5/13/15


In its first projection for the 2015-16 corn crop, USDA estimates that corn production this season will be 13.6 billion bushels, down 586 million bushels from the record 2014-15 corn crop. Corn supplies overall for 2015-16 are projected at a record 15.5 billion bushels, up just slightly from 2014-15.

In the May edition of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the agency said the expected drop would be due to both lower forecast area and yield. The U.S. corn yield is projected at 166.8 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from the 2014-15 record based on a weather-adjusted yield trend that assumes normal summer weather.

Corn planting has gotten off to a blistering pace, which bodes well for the chances of the plants being mature enough to withstand summertime temperature swings and shifts in water availability. Still, more than 90 percent of the variability in the corn yield is determined by July precipitation and temperatures in the Midwest.

Meanwhile, ending corn inventories are forecast at 1.851 billion bushels, above last month’s 1.827 billion bushels but just below analysts’ consensus expectations of 1.856 billion bushels.

Feed and residual use for 2015-16 crop year is projected 50 million bushels higher with animal numbers up from 2014-15. Corn used to produce ethanol in 2015-16 is expected to be unchanged as projected gasoline consumption during the 2015-16 marketing year is nearly identical to 2014-15.

The season-average 2015-16 farm price is projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, down 15 cents at the midpoint from this month’s lowered outlook for 2014-15.

“We are seeing continued expansion in the broiler and hog industry and this could help bolster feed use for the upcoming marketing year,” noted analysts Steve Meyer and Len Steiner in the Daily Livestock Report. “Export demand remains a wild card.”

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