Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 6/10/15


Projections for overall meat production in 2015 is down somewhat, reflecting lower beef slaughter and, especially, lower turkey supplies, according to the USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released Wednesday.

USDA now expects 2015 production to total 95.1 billion total pounds of meat, down from 95.6 billion pounds in May.
However, projections for total meat production in 2016 are higher than a month ago, the report said, at 97.4 billion pounds for the year, compared with 97.2 billion pounds forecast last month.

The agency lowered its beef production forecasts for 2015 to 24.0 billion pounds from 24.3 billion pounds, as fed cattle slaughter expectations are reduced for the second quarter and cow and bull slaughter is expected lower during the year. The arrival of rain in some parts of the country has improved forage conditions and so cattle placements in the second half are expected to be higher; slaughter numbers are expected to rise for 2016 as those cattle go to fabrication.

Forecasts for 2015 and 2016 beef imports are increased as demand for processing grade beef remains strong; no change was made to the export forecast.

Pork supplies, meanwhile, are forecast higher for 2015 compared with a month ago, due to higher-than-expected second-quarter slaughter, USDA said. Expectations for 2015 are that total pork production will be 24.45 billion pounds, up from 24.39 billion pounds a month ago.

Pork imports for 2015 are reduced, as domestic production is up, but exports are higher based on the pace of trade so far this year. Projections for 2016 remain unchanged from last month.

Broiler production expectations for the rest of 2015 and 2016 are up from last month based on hatchery data. The agency expected 2015 chicken production to be 40.3 billion pounds, up from 40.1 billion pounds in May. Broiler exports for 2015 are lowered as demand has been below expectations; a number of countries have cut back on buying U.S. poultry due to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). USDA did not change its forecast for broiler exports in 2016.

In the U.S., turkey production is reduced for both 2015 and 2016 as HPAI has significantly affected supplies of turkeys. Turkey production in 2015 now is expected to be 5.6 billion pounds and 6.0 billion in 2016, compared with May estimates of 5.9 billion and 6.2 billion pounds, respectively.

The expected pace of flock recovery means the 2016 production forecast also is lowered, as are projections for turkey exports.

To read the USDA report in detail, click here.

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