Source: USDA, 8/27/15

 Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack today made the following statement on the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's fourth quarter Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

"The strong pace of American agricultural exports continues. Fiscal years 2015 and 2016 exports are forecast to be the third- and fourth-highest on record, respectively. Bulk export volumes are expected to rise in fiscal year 2016 and reach near record levels, and horticultural and livestock product exports are also expected to be higher.

"Today's forecast provides a snapshot of a rural America that continues to remain stable in the face of the worst animal disease outbreak in our nation's history and while the western U.S. remains gripped by drought. Thanks to the resilience of our farmers and ranchers, fiscal years 2009 to 2015 represent the strongest seven years in history for U.S. agricultural trade, with U.S. agricultural product exports totaling more than $911 billion.

"We expect that new trade agreements, made possible thanks to Trade Promotion Authority, will allow American farmers and ranchers to better reach the 95 percent of consumers who live outside of our borders and drive the continued strength of American agricultural exports. USDA will continue to fight to get the best trade deals for farmers and ranchers that open new markets and new customers to them. Expanded trade strengthens the agricultural economy, supports more than one million good paying American jobs, and helps to preserve the rural way of life."

The FY2015 final forecast is $139.5 billion (down from $140.5b projected in May) and the first FY2016 forecast is $138.5 billion. Most of the decline is the results of lower soybean and grain prices, in light of plentiful supply in the U.S. and worldwide. Export volume is expected to rise in FY2016 and hit near record levels. High-value product exports are also forecast to increase in fiscal year 2016, with both horticultural products and livestock products forecast higher. Horticultural products (which include a wide range of goods) are forecast to remain the largest agricultural export product group. U.S. agricultural imports are forecast to rise $7 billion to a record $122.5 billion in fiscal year 2016. As a result, the U.S. agricultural surplus is forecast to fall to $16.0 billion, the lowest since 2007.

For reference, the FY2015 and FY2016 export forecasts are both higher than exports in 2012, 2011 and before. Very easy to frame this as still record highs and the volume and horticultural products are also good pieces to pull out.

To view the export forecast, click here.