Source: Lisa M. Keefe, MEATINGPLACE, 9/11/15


USDA lowered its forecasts for total meat production in 2015 and 2016 for the second consecutive month, compared with the August edition of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Beef
Beef production for 2015 is lowered due to a slower pace of slaughter in the third quarter, but the decline is partly offset by heavier carcass weights. The forecast for 2016 is raised as continued increases in carcass weights support higher beef production.

Beef imports are reduced for 2015 based on the pace of imports in July, but the forecast for 2016 is raised as product shipped late in 2015 may not arrive until early 2016. Beef exports for 2015 are lowered as demand in the second half of the year is projected to remain relatively weak.

Cattle prices for 2015 and 2016 are reduced from last month on weaker demand and competition from other meats. Prices for the third quarter are expected to wind up around $144 to $147 per hundredweight, inching upward to between $145 to $153 per hundredweight in the fourth quarter. In the first half of 2016 the projections range from $145 to $160 per hundredweight.

Pork
The pork production forecast for 2015 is reduced as the pace of slaughter in the third quarter is lower than expected, but no change is made to 2016 forecasts.  USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sept. 25, providing an estimate of market hog supplies and farrowing intentions into early 2016.

Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged. Hog prices are higher for 2015 based on prices in the third quarter. Prices for barrows and gilts are projected to remain between $53 and $54 per hundredweight in the third quarter, dropping in the fourth quarter to between $45 and $47 per hundredweight. In the first half of 2016, hog prices are expected to range from $46 to $53 per hundredweight.

Chicken
Broiler production for 2015 and 2016 is lowered from last month as producers respond to weaker margins. Broiler exports are reduced from last month as slow demand is expected to continue for the remainder of the year and into 2016. Broiler prices are lowered for both 2015 and 2016 on generally large broiler meat supplies, with prices between 83 cents and 88 cents per pound in the rest of 2015, climbing to between 88 cents and 98 cents per pound in the first half of 2016 — still down from the $1.02 to $1.04 cents per pound in the latter half of 2014.

Turkey
Turkey production for 2015 is lowered based on hatchery data, but the forecast for 2016 is unchanged, and forecasts for turkey prices are unchanged from last month. Turkey prices in the second half of 2015 are expected to be between $1.24 and $1.35 per pound, dropping slightly to $1.10 to $1.22 per pound in the first half of 2016.

Corn
U.S. corn use for 2015-16 is lowered by 20 million bushels, but usage is expected to be at record-high levels and just above the level projected for 2014-15. Feed and residual use for 2015-16 is expected 25 million bushels lower with the smaller crop. Despite higher projected global import demand, projected corn exports for 2015-16 are unchanged with tighter supplies. U.S. ending stocks for 2015-16 are projected 121 million bushels lower.

The 2015-16 season-average corn price received by producers is projected 10 cents higher on both ends to $3.45 to $4.05 per bushel.

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